Confidence, GDT & Oil
Although the economic outlook is positive for 2018, we are fully aware that sharemarkets have risen sharply in recent years and valuations are high. Consequently, we will continue to monitor economic and political developments for any negative signals.
We continue to be cautious on some regions and industries.The credit expansion that we have seen in China is a concern; in the US the student and car loan market has ballooned over the last 12 months; and we are not that confident in the Italian banking sector. If any of these should fall over it will have an impact, but we do not think they will cause the wide spread correction of 2000 or 2008.